Our principles
- Every figure has a source, credited in the email next to it. Almost all of it is public data from federal agencies, Intermountain MLS and Zillow. Nothing is typed in by hand: the data refreshes automatically every week.
- Every figure says why it matters to the reader: buyer, seller, investor or commercial client.
- We describe; we don't forecast. Where a signal has historically come before a change, we say so, but we don't predict prices.
- Small samples are flagged, not dressed up. Under 40 sales in a month, we use the year to date. Under 100 MLS sales in a year, we don't publish a market read at all.
- We keep every letter. Each report is archived exactly as sent with its figures, so each letter can show what changed since the last one.
Canterbury Signals
The market read the way a finance desk reads it: spreads against a benchmark, ratios against their own history, and indicators that move before prices do.
Rent yield over the 10-year Treasury
How: A city's typical annual rent divided by its typical home value (Zillow's rent and home value indexes), minus the 10-year Treasury yield (Federal Reserve, via FRED) for the same month. It is ranked against every month since 2019, when Zillow's rent index begins.
Why it matters: This is the premium a rental earns over a risk-free bond before any expenses. When it's negative or near zero, rentals are priced for appreciation and rent growth, not income. When it widens, rentals are getting cheaper against bonds.
Payment to income
How: The monthly payment on the median sold home (Intermountain MLS), with 20% down at the week's average 30-year rate (Freddie Mac), plus property tax after the homeowner's exemption (Idaho State Tax Commission levy rates). Divided by median household income (Census American Community Survey). Shown now and a year ago.
Why it matters: Lenders' rule of thumb is about 28% of gross income for housing. Above that, buyers need help: seller credits, rate buydowns or down-payment programs. The Census income figure lags a few years, so the true ratio is a little lower.
Demand against supply
How: The year-over-year growth in pending sales minus the year-over-year growth in active listings (Intermountain MLS), averaged over three months. Above +10 points reads as demand outrunning supply; below −10, supply outrunning demand.
Why it matters: Contracts and listings move before sold prices do. A squeeze tends to reach prices a few months later; a glut shows up first as price cuts.
Time to contract
How: The median days from listing to going under contract (Intermountain MLS), compared with the same month in each of the last five years, because homes always sell slower in winter.
Why it matters: Time on market is where a softening market shows first, before sold prices move. The fastest reading for the month in several years is a firm market; the slowest is a softening one.
Homes permitted per household arriving
How: Homes permitted this year at the current pace (Census building permits), divided by population growth (Census estimates) over the county's average household size. Above 1.2 is building ahead of arrivals; below 0.8, behind.
Why it matters: Building behind population growth keeps vacancy low and prices and rents firm. Building ahead gives renters and buyers more choice and landlords more competition.
Yield curve
How: The 10-year Treasury yield minus the 3-month Treasury bill (FRED), with the dates of its most recent inversion.
Why it matters: An upward curve pays lenders to lend long, which supports mortgage and commercial credit. An inverted curve has historically come before tighter lending.
The market read
Each report opens with months of supply: active listings divided by average monthly sales over the last 12 months (Intermountain MLS). Under 4 months reads as favoring sellers, 4 to 6 as fairly balanced, and over 6 as favoring buyers.
Our rent survey
Every week we read the public listing pages of the Boise-area property managers we search for relocation clients: 22 managers and 248 listings as of the latest survey. We publish only totals: median asking rent by county, city, bedrooms, home type and size, rent per square foot, and pet policy. Home type is read from each listing's description. We track each unit's rent over time under a one-way key (never its address) to report rent cuts, how long units take to lease, and how rents change over three months and a year. A county gets its own figures from 20 listings up; smaller Treasure Valley counties use the valley's figures.
The worked examples
What a home costs a month
Principal and interest on a 30-year fixed loan with 20% down, plus property tax on the value above Idaho's homeowner's exemption (half the value, up to $125,000), at the week's average rate and half a point either side. Before insurance and any HOA.
Equity by the year you bought
Zillow's typical home value for the county's main city in June of 2016, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2025, and at its peak, against today. Your own home's value depends on its condition, size and street; ask us for a valuation.
Does a typical rental pencil?
The median asking rent for a house in our survey, on the city's typical home value. Assumptions: 25% down; the 30-year average rate plus 0.75 point for an investor loan; 3% closing costs; 5% vacancy; property tax on the full value (rentals get no homeowner's exemption); insurance estimated at 0.35% of value; 8% of rent for repairs and reserves; and 8% for management. We show net operating income, cap rate, cash flow, cash-on-cash return and the rent at which it breaks even. It's a worked example, not a quote: we'll run a specific property on request.
Check your own equity
The same index our equity table uses, applied to your purchase: pick your city, when you bought and what you paid.
Sources
Each source, its latest date and what it does and doesn’t tell you is on Sources and method.
Intermountain MLS public statistics; Zillow Home Value and Observed Rent Indexes; U.S. Census Bureau (building permits, population estimates, American Community Survey, County Business Patterns); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (employment, unemployment, wages); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index; Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (HMDA); U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Fair Market Rents; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System via FRED; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey; Idaho State Tax Commission; Idaho Housing and Finance Association; COMPASS; Idaho Transportation Department; Boise Airport; City of Boise; and our own rent survey.
Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. The Canterbury Group, brokered by eXp Realty, LLC. Nothing here is financial, investment, tax or legal advice.